Risk Matrix

• In today’s Recommendations for Industry, we look at TAG’s COVID-19 Risk Matrix to better understand what is happening around the country. Read more below.
• As global COVID-19 cases have risen by 12% in the last week (CIDRAP), the WHO chief is sounding the alarm that we may be going into the “early stages of another wave” (CNBC). Indonesia has become the epicenter of the new wave of COVID-19 in Asia (AP News). In fact, the Delta variant has now been detected in 124 countries!
• The Delta variant of COVID-19 now accounts for 83% of all U.S. COVID-19 cases. This is a huge increase, up 50% since the week of July 3.
• The S. Government Accountability Office released a new statement providing 15 recommendations around topics such as program integrity and preparedness for future public health emergencies. As part of this, the GAO also encouraged “the CDC work with stakeholders to have a plan for dealing with surges in laboratory testing. Second, it recommends that CDC analyze its needs for manufacturing and deploying diagnostic test kits during public health emergencies, which could result in establishing pre-emptive contracts with test kit manufacturers” (CIDRAP).
• India’s death toll is likely much higher than its current reported; instead, estimates put the death toll at 10 times higher than the official count – perhaps up to 3 or 4 million dead.

Risk Matrix

Case rates and test positive rates are rising across the country. In fact, the Delta variant now accounts for more than 83% of new cases (CIDRAP) identified across the country; with many of those infected being unvaccinated. In today’s Risk Matrix, we explore the numbers. We’ve had many weeks of lower TPRs and case rates; however, this week, things have changed:

• Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Nevada, Oklahoma, Texas, and Utah have a TPR ≥ 5% and a case rate ≥ 10/100K people.
  • 13 states have a TPR >5% and case rate >10/100K people. (see the Case Rate / 100K people chart below)
  • 23 states (almost half of US states) now have a TPR >5%. However, 6 states have a TPR >10% – including Alaska, Florida, Missouri, Mississippi, Nevada, and Oklahoma.
• Wyoming has a TPR < 5% and a case rate≥ 10/100K people.

Table 1. Figure 1. Table 2. Table 3.

• On Tuesday’s Recommendations for Industry, we discussed tracking other (non-COVID 19) workplace transmissible diseases including Legionnaires Disease. Read more here.
• The WHO is warning of the “strong likelihood” of new and possibly more dangerous variants. Watch WHO’s discussion on Youtube. The new center of the pandemic is now Indonesia!
• Canada is re-opening its borders! The border will first reopen on August 9^th to Americans. Starting August 9^th, U.S. fully vaccinated citizens and permanent residents from the US will enter Canada. Additionally, Canada’s vaccination rates have now surpassed the U.S.
• As we’ve seen in the U.S. Risk Matrix, CIDRAP reports that US-COVID-19 cases are up 140% in the past 2 weeks; in fact, COVID-19 cases continue to climb, driven by areas of low vaccinations. Hospitalizations have increased by 34% and deaths increased by 33%. The Delta variant is the dominant COVID-19 variant, globally; in fact, global COVID-19 deaths have begun to rise with illnesses jumping over 10% over the past week. Countries with the greatest cases, this last week, include Brazil, India, Indonesia, the UK, and Columbia. Despite an increase in vaccines being shipped/delivered to Asia (which has seen their worst surge in COVID-19 infections), Indonesia has surpassed India as Asia’s new COVID-19 epicenter.
• Half of all hospitalized COVID-19 patients will develop complications. Additionally, recent studies are showing that “long-haul” COVID-19 individuals often have more than 5 symptoms in the first week of infection.
• The COVID-19 vaccine will better protect you than an infection. But more importantly, it’s much safer to get the vaccine than to be infected with COVID-19.
• The NYT discusses the Beta variant. While it has been shown to evade the immune system, it can still be effectively controlled by vaccination.
• Pfizer is now seeking full FDA vaccine approval! The goal for the FDA’s decisions is January 2022.
• After Pfizer’s briefing with the FDA/CDC, both the FDA & CDC announced that nothing has changed and that fully vaccinated Americans don’t need a booster vaccine shot (at this time).
• “Children are not just little adults”; why the COVID-19 vaccine isn’t available for kids, yet!

Public Health & Food Safety:

• Monkeypox is now confirmed in Texas.
• Public Health of England has issued a warning after norovirus cases in England have returned to what they were prior to the pandemic. This is also seen in childcare facilities in New South Wales, Australia. Although hand sanitizers are effective in reducing COVID-19, it has little impact on norovirus.
• Five European countries (Germany, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands) are investigating Salmonella illnesses associated with tahini and halva from Syria.
• There are new changes to the National List of Allowed and Prohibited Substances (National List); these changes will go into effect on July 26.
• A recent study from UGA found that 60% “of cattle fecal samples contained multiple strains of Salmonella that traditional testing methods missed” and that “one out of every 10 samples tested positive for Salmonella Reading, a drug-resistant serotype of Salmonella.”