Taking A Turn Or Backing Up?

• In today’s Recommendations for Industry, we discuss this week’s US Risk Matrix and the increasing case rates across the country. Read more here.
• There is a recent Delta plus variant that has been detected. It has been identified in the San Francisco Bay Area and also in Florida. As we understand more, TAG will update you all.
• The CDC is encouraging and endorsing vaccinations for pregnant individuals.
• The U.S. has eased COVID-19 travel restrictions for Canada to Level 2. The U.S. State Department and CDC have both lowered the COVID-19 travel advisory for Canada to “Level 2 Exercise Increased Caution.” However, “Level 4: Do Not Travel” advisories have been issued for Israel, Iceland and France because of rising infections.
• FDA poised to OK 3rd vaccine dose for immunocompromised people
  • The Food and Drug Administration is poised to amend the emergency use authorizations for the Pfizer and the Moderna Covid-19 vaccines Thursday to allow people with compromised immune systems to get a third dose, according to two sources familiar with the plans.
  • The CDC advisory group is scheduled to meet Friday, when it may vote on whether to officially recommend a third shot for immunocompromised people.
• One month later: Maps show how quickly Covid engulfed the US again
  • More than 98% of US residents now live in an area with a “high” or “substantial” risk of Covid-19 community transmission — a CDC metric that involves case numbers and test positivity rates. A mere month ago, that figure was at only 19%.

Delta Variant Updates:

• Achieving herd immunity with Covid vaccines when the highly infectious delta variant is spreading is “not a possibility,” a leading epidemiologist said
• New data on coronavirus vaccine effectiveness may be “a wakeup call”
• The Delta Variant Isn’t As Contagious As Chickenpox. But It’s Still Highly Contagious
  

Public Health/Food Safety:

• • • The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) have published a review of risk assessment tools for Vibrio in 2020, updating advice on risk assessment for Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio vulnificus.

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Taking A Turn Or Backing Up?

Over the last couple weeks, TAG has noted that the U.S. has been following the trajectory of the U.K. in relation to the COVID-19/Delta variant resurgence. We predicted that we would likely again hit the 200,000 cases/day mark with at least another month of rising cases and furthered vaccine and mask mandates.

While that is panning out, the expectation that the trajectory would then decrease has taken a bit of a turn. That is, we are now seeing the decrease in the U.K., and other countries, has not only flattened out, it has taken a bit of an upturn – which is causing TAG to adjust its predications and recommendations as well.

So, not only do you need to keep your seatbelt fastened for the duration, you will likely need to be backing up – reconsidering interventions, such as holding virtual meetings instead of bringing employees into a conference room; requiring masking; encouraging, incenting, and facilitating vaccines; and maintaining distancing and alternate schedules, where possible, for employees.

If you or your employees need further reason for doing so, the “One month later” images above and TAG matrix graphs below should help. And, as always, give TAG a call if you should need any assistance.

Risk Matrix

With 35 states with a Test Positive Rate (TPR) above 5% and a case rate higher than 14 people/100K, case rates across the country have risen drastically; in fact, 23 states have a case rate >25 persons/100K. Transmission rate uniformly above 1 across the U.S.

There is one bit of good news to impart, however, as 50% of the those within the U.S. are now fully vaccinated and 70% have now received at least one dose of one vaccine.

• In Tuesday’s Recommendations for Industry, we discussed the questions surrounding mandating vaccinations in one’s workforce. Read more here.
• This year, the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally has forged ahead, with “a half-million motorcycle enthusiasts” having descended upon Black Hills, South Dakota. Last year, this event led to a large outbreak; this year, even more attendees are expected just as the Delta variant is
• In the S. South, states are entering their fifth week of the fourth COVID-19 surge fueled by the Delta variant.
• 50% of the U.S. population has finally become fully vaccinated against COVID-19; this is an 11% increase from last week. As of today, 70% of the U.S. population has received at least one shot (this is one month later than the original goal). At this same time, various businesses and state governments are mandating vaccinations for employees and workers to be protective of their businesses and also their employees.
  • A recent CDC MMWR released on Monday has found that vaccination offers high protection than previous COVID-19 infection.
• The FDA expects to have its strategy for COVID-19 booster shots for high-risk groups ready by early September. This new consideration arises as a result of the more contagious Delta variant that is seeing breakthrough cases in those with weakened immune systems.
• As of Monday, Canada is now allowing vaccinated US citizens to visit!
• An increasing number of children, even those who had only a mild reaction, who have been infected with COVID-19 are now struggling with long COVID, including lingering physical, mental, and neurological symptoms.
• Nearly 72K children test positive in the past week; heart problems associated with vaccines are uncommon, study shows. The lambda variant, first detected in Peru in August 2020, made its way to the U.S. for the first time on July 22 and now accounts for 1,053 cases in the country. The lambda variant isn’t showing signs to spark concern about it becoming the dominant strain of COVID-19 in the United States like delta. For every one million Americans vaccinated against COVID-19, only 60 developed heart problems, according to anew study published in the JAMA Network.
• Delta variant is ravaging the world but it’s pushing Southeast Asia to breaking point. Outbreaks in Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Myanmar are increasing substantially. The countries are suffering a health crisis, with hospitals stretched to their limits, full cemeteries expanded to hold the Covid dead, and exhausted health care workers.
• Moderna’s Covid vaccine 93 percent effective 6 months after second dose, company says. That compares favorably to data from Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE last week in which they said their vaccine’s efficacy waned around six percent every two months, declining to around 84 percent six months after the second shot. Moderna said its studies of three different booster candidates induced robust antibody responses against variants, including the Gamma, Beta and Delta variants.
• Fauci fears a COVID variant worse than Delta could be coming . As the virus continues to spread due to insufficient vaccination rates, it is being given “ample” time to mutate into a more dangerous new variant in the fall and winter, Fauci said. On Tuesday South Korea announced that it had detected two cases of the Delta Plus variant, one in a man who had recently returned from the U.S., Reuters Some experts believe the Delta Plus variant could be more contagious than the Delta variant. Recent studies indicated that Lambda could be more resistant to the current COVID-19 vaccines, according to Reuters.
• COVID-19 not a food safety hazard – FAO Current data indicates that neither food nor food packaging is a pathway for the spread of viruses such as SARS-CoV-2. An infected worker can infect co-workers, contaminate the food production and processing environments, and food or food materials that may lead to trade restrictions, even though there is no food safety hazard. The virus is susceptible to most used disinfectants and sanitizers used in the food processing environment. WHO recommends sanitizers with greater than 70 percent alcohol with sufficient contact time for decontamination.