No COVID Red Flags, But Spaces to Watch

• In today’s Recommendations for industry, we discuss some spaces to watch for (especially in the US) and its relation to the U.S. 50-State Risk Matrix. Read more here.
• A recent non-peer-reviewed preprint, as reported by CIDRAP has shown that the Delta and Gamma variants of COVID-19 are currently making up the largest shares of U.S.-specific COVID-19 cases, with much of the Delta variant being identified in regions with higher rates of unvaccinated individuals. Similarly, globally, the Delta variant (and in Latin America, the Gamma variant, too) of COVID-19, have surged dramatically, including in Africa and across South-East Asia. There is additional news coming out for the Philippines and in S. American nations like Colombia, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, and Uruguay whose COVID-19 death toll accounts for 25% of all COVID-19 death tolls globally even though their combined populations only make up 5% of the global population.
• A recent pre-peer reviewed study is investigating the mutation (P681R) that makes the Delta COVID-19 variant “more resistant against neutralizing antibodies and allows the virus to infect human cells more efficiently.” Period goes inside quotations.
• The FDA has put out a Drug Safety Communication “for hand sanitizers, warning that symptoms such as headache, nausea, and dizziness can occur after applying alcohol-based hand sanitizers to the skin and inhaling the vapors that linger. Consumers should use hand sanitizer in a well-ventilated area.” Is this entire paragraph a direct quote? Please don’t inhale hand sanitizer fumes!

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No Red Flags, But Spaces to Watch

Although this week’s matrix shows no overt red flags, there are some definite spaces to be watching. A number of states are showing some increased transmission and case rates (particularly Missouri), but these rates are nowhere near previous numbers.

We don’t see a need for businesses to change their course of action, reinstate higher protections, etc. We are still seeing some unpredictable “wild cards” out there – such as the continuing increases of the Delta variant (as was discussed in Monday’s newsletter). Keep an eye on these spaces, watch for changes in areas in which you have facilities, and make adaptations as needed for the continued protection of your workers.

Risk Matrix

• The Government Stringency Index is 22 this week.
• In Figure 1, this week, we compare the case rate/100K (Table 1) in the population to the percentage of a state’s population that has been fully vaccinated (Table 2). Table 3 compares the previous week’s percentage of states’ populations that have become fully vaccinated full dose (and the rate of change between the last week and this week).
• As with last week, no states have a TPR ≥ 10% or TPR <10% and a case rate ≥25/100K people! This is positive news and incredibly promising!

Table 1.

Figure 1.

Table 2.

Table 3.

• In Monday’s Recommendations for Industry, we discussed the rise in Delta variant cases. Read more here.
• The S. Department of Homeland Security has extended COVID-19 restrictions for non-essential travel (via land and ferry) with Canada and Mexico until July 21, 2021.
• As Delta variant cases continue to rise in the US (and around the world), unvaccinated individuals are at higher risk. In the US, states with lower vaccination rates like Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Wyoming, have populations who are at higher risk as less than 35% of individuals are fully vaccinated. Arizona is reporting a spike in COVID-19 cases and deaths.
• In Russia, COVID-19 cases are again surging; most with the Delta variant.
• A judge in Florida has declared that starting July 18^th, the CDC no longer has purview to enforce its COVID-19 rules on cruise ships leaving Florida. Instead, these rules are now “recommendations” and taken “for consideration.”
• Vaccine hesitancy is likely to put India’s progress against COVID-19 at risk. Currently less than 5% of the population is fully vaccinated and with the majority of the population living in more rural areas, these same individuals are expressing hesitancy fueled heavily by misinformation and mistrust (including misinformation that COVID-19 ‘does not exist in villages’ or that vaccinations can disrupt ‘the menstruation cycle and reduce fertility’).
• The U.S. plans to invest over $3 billion into antiviral pills to combat COVID-19 when symptoms onset in order to minimize infection.
• New data by Public Health England finds that COVID-19 reinfections are low; of almost 4 million COVID-19 infected individuals, only about 0.4% of cases were reinfections (as studied in England).
• In the UK, the surge in COVID-19 cases is driven very noticeably by youths who carry the Delta variant; in fact, the Delta variant now accounts for 90% of all COVID-19 cases in the UK.
• An additional study published in Cell found the current available vaccines were not as effective against the Delta variant.
• Africa is seeing a full-blown third COVID-19 wave, caused by a few different reasons, including rise in variants but also scarce vaccine supplies.
• A pre-peer reviewed study of COVID-19 variants in Japan has found that the Rt of the Alpha variant is about 1.5 while the Delta variant is 1.8. The Delta-variant is expected to become the dominant variant in Japan by mid-July (around the time of the Olympics which is still set to happen).
  • To that end, Japan is easing states of emergency in Tokyo and eight other prefectures (Reuters). While measures will be instilled at the Olympic Games, public health experts wonder if the Olympics will become a superspreading event (The Hill).