TAG’s COVID-19 Risk Matrix Confirms Downward Trend

• In today’s Recommendations for Industry, we discuss the TAG COVID-19 Risk Matrix showing that cases and case rates are dropping in the U.S. and globally.
• The CDC is hosting the National Forum on COVID-19 Vaccine from February 22 – 24, 2021. Find out more and register at the CDC’s website.
• Cases of Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C), resulting from COVID-19, are increasing at a striking rate.
• Due to the winter storm, coronavirus vaccine shipments are faced with huge delays all around the U.S.
• Scientists surveyed in a Nature survey believe that COVID-19 may become endemic; but that it may “pose less danger over time.”
• The state of New York is suing Amazon for its poor and unsafe treatment of workers during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• The UK will deliberately infect/expose 90 volunteers to COVID-19 to ”increase understanding of how the virus affects people.”
• Research from Poland has found that COVID-19 patients had lower death rates when treated early on in the illness with convalescent plasma.
• The WHO has released a “what you need to know” about the Moderna COVID-19 (mRNA-1273) vaccine.
• NPR interviewed Dutch virologist Marion Koopmans, who was part of the WHO team that went into Wuhan, China to investigate the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic.

TAG’s COVID-19 Risk Matrix Confirms Downward Trend

TAG’s weekly COVID-19 Risk Matrix is confirming what has been reported recently in the media – the trends are continuing downward. Transmission rates are less than one in virtually every state – indicating that those infected with COVID are infecting no more than one other person, thus resulting in much lower spread of the virus.

That said, TAG continues its recommendation to keep doing what you’re doing. We may still see additional impacts of the variants, and there is some concern about the cases of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) resulting from COVID-19 that are increasing at a striking rate.

TAG Risk Matrix.

Based on TAG’s matrices since last week:

• The Government Stringency Index is 46 this week. It is the same as the previous week’s GSI. There are no states in the U.S. where businesses are completely closed. Eight (8) states’ (Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Mexico, and Oregon) businesses are in mixed opening stages.
• Six (6) states are in the Highest-Risk Quadrant (Outbreak Index > 50) (see Table 1 on Case Rates/100K population). This is down from 12 last week. States in the High and Highest-Risk Quadrants are Alabama, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, and South Dakota.
• In Figure 1, this week, we compare the case rate/100K in the population to the percentage of a state’s population that has been vaccinated.

[Table 1]

[Figure 1]

• Eleven (11) states have a TPR ≥10% and a case rate ≥ 25/100K people (see Table 2; Figure 2). This is down from 15 states last week. This indicates that testing may not be adequate to fully characterize the true severity of the outbreak in the states. On the other hand, 13 states have a TPR < 10% and a case rate≥ 25/100K people indicates adequate testing that is likely finding most symptomatic cases of illnesses.

[Table 2]

• In Figure 2, we compare case rate/100K in the population to the number of COVID-19 tests administered and change in Test Positive Rates.

[Figure 2]

• In Monday’s Recommendations for Industry, we discussed COVID-19 variants identified around the world continuing to raise questions, those studied appear to be variations in the spike protein. Read More.
• When referring to individuals who are “fully vaccinated”, this refers to individuals that have waited at least two weeks post receiving (a) the second does of a two-dose vaccine; or (b) one dose of a single vaccine.
• For the first time in months, new daily COVID-19 cases have dropped below 100,000 cases in the US.
• Back in July 2020, a new COVID variant (CAL.20C) with 5 mutations was discovered in California, specifically Los Angeles County. Since then, the variant has grown to account for 35% of all COVID strains in California and has been detected in 19 other states, Washington D.C., and other countries! According to CIDRAP, “CAL.20C is one of several other widely circulating variants, such as those first identified in the United Kingdom (B117), South Africa (B1351), and Brazil (B11248).”
• As global COVID-19 cases fall, WHO warns of complacency – https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/02/global-covid-19-cases-fall-who-warns-complacency
• Pfizer and Moderna are currently enrolling children 12 years and older into clinical trials for their vaccines; however, the results of these vaccine trials (for kids) will not be available until about summer 2021!
• In France, health authorities are recommending only one vaccine dose for those who have had COVID-19 within 3 to 6 months (unless one has a compromised immune system).
• In Friday’s Recommendations for Industry, we discussed new recommendations from CDC for masks and quarantining vaccinated persons.
  • The CDC has declared that individuals who have received the full course of a COVID-19 vaccine do not need to quarantine for 10 – 14 days post-exposure to a COVID-infected individual, as long as the person remains asymptomatic and meets other criteria outlined in today’s vaccine Q&A.”