In a recent Insights article, TAG President and CEO Dr. David Acheson took a look back at 2024, noting how the “unusual” year had a lot of people asking if the food supply is getting less safe. There seemed to be “one recall after another; one outbreak after another,” but have recalls actually increased? Or is it just the extensive media focus and disparaging headlines due to the recalls being “big name” events?
As Dr. Acheson stated then, it’s a question that’s tough to answer, but “The statistics will tell us whether, numerically, we’re having more recalls or more outbreaks.” As the calendar rolls into 2025, we now have those statistics.
As shown in the following charts, compiled from the FDA Compliance Dashboard database and the USDA FSIS Annual Recall Summaries, the statistics actually show a different story. While there has been fluctuation between years, the overall trajectory of recalls has declined over the last decade, particularly when assessing Class I recalls, which are the most serious.
However, with recalls impacting Boar’s Head deli meats and a McDonald’s onion supplier, the name recognition of such companies made for (compelling?) headlines. Additionally, some of the illustrated statistics were based on FDA recall product totals, which include food cosmetics, drugs, devices, tobacco, biologics and veterinary. Even when broken down to its lowest product type, FDA still combines food with cosmetics, giving an inaccurate representation of food recalls in many of the FDA-citing articles. Add to this the comments from some industry “experts” such as “There’s been a 20-25% increase in recalls over the last two to three years,” and 2024 has been an “extraordinarily bad year” for recalls – with the articles relating the comments directly to food recalls.
So, what are the real statistics? TAG dug further into the FDA food and USDA FSIS recall data to get the real story. As the following two graphs show, food recalls are nowhere near their highest levels; 2024 was the second lowest of any year of the last decade (with only the 2020 year of the pandemic at a lower level); and the linear trend of Class I recalls is actually on a downslope.
It also is significant to show that while laboratory-diagnosed bacterial and parasitic infections compiled by CDC FoodNet Pathogen Surveillance were at the highest level of the decade, the number of these associated with outbreaks was extremely low, with none exceeding 5% of the total.
The real numbers, therefore, support the assertion by Dr. Acheson and TAG that there has not been a massive shift or increase in recalls or laboratory-diagnosed bacterial and parasitic infections. However, the latter is showing a slight upward trend. However, the increases that are detected need to be weighed against the evolution of genetic testing, causing small clusters and outbreaks that might have gone unnoticed in the past now being picked up, noticed, attributed to a food commodity, and reacted to.
So, food safety has indeed become higher profile. While we could do without the mischaracterization of the statistics, an increased focus on food safety is not a bad thing. But let’s keep it in proportion and not scare consumers and turn them against an industry which, as a whole, I truly believe wants to do the right thing and keep food safe. Remember – they and their families eat the food too and, in most cases, their livelihood is dependent on staying in business which requires them to make safe food.
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