By Dr. David Acheson
While I correctly foretold 2025 to be a year of significant change, I see 2026 as much less predictable. In fact, it is exactly that which I expect the year to be: unpredictable. Will action be taken on the federal agencies’ initiatives set forth in 2025? Will the Administration’s ideologies result in new regulation? Will the tariffs continue or be struck down? And, most importantly, what impact will any of this have on the food industry – either way?
Despite the unpredictability of much of it, I’ll take a stab at a few of the areas for which I have a bit more confidence in predicting and their potential impact.
As I’ve previously noted, the initiative I would most expect to be moved forward, even possibly coming under regulation, is GRAS. The FDA has published an abstract of a proposed rule to amend the Generally Recognized as Safe (GRAS) regulations to require the mandatory submission of GRAS notices, effectively eliminating the option for self-affirmation. The rule would require that FDA maintain a public-facing GRAS notice inventory and would clarify the process under which FDA would determine that a substance is not GRAS. Although it has been submitted to OMB, a proposed rule is not projected to publish until at least spring of 2026, after which it would need to undergo a public comment and revision period before potentially being published as a rule. So, while it seems unlikely that the industry would be subject to a rule in 2026, it is even more unlikely that any self-affirmed submissions not already accepted would be considered.
In relation to the initiative to phase out synthetic dyes in foods, I wouldn’t expect to see even a proposed rule any time soon. The administration currently seems content with its “understanding” with the industry, particularly as a number of major manufacturers have voluntarily begun the process to remove artificial colors and FDA has approved some food colors from natural sources. How far the phase out will go continues to be in question, however, as states are being blocked by the courts from enforcing food dye or additive bans and certain manufacturers, i.e., candy companies, are continuing to hold out.
Then there is the battle against ultra-processed foods (UPFs) and the continuing work on the 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines. With one of the greatest sticking points of a UPF regulation being the lack of definition of just what constitutes ultra-processed, I would expect that to be a key focus. But how it will be defined, and how that would affect the food industry, could be highly controversial. So, we may (or may not) see a definition in 2026, but I wouldn’t expect to see a regulation come out. Just as controversial are the potential updates to the Dietary Guidelines. Robert F Kennedy’s recommendation of “whole” foods, including full-fat dairy, red meats, and beef tallow over other oils for frying, have health professionals raising concerns. So, it will certainly be interesting to watch this space to see how it evolves.
As to tariffs, I would expect we can expect to see continued change, one way or another. Even if the Supreme Court prevails in declaring that the President had no authority to impose the tariffs, he could attempt to reissue the levies under other rationales. Whichever way this goes, the turbulence of 2025 will in all likelihood continue, impacting food businesses along with virtually all US industries – and consumers.
In 2025 we also saw several high-profile outbreaks involving both common and uncommon situations – that is one area where I expect 2026 will be no different. And with FDA having struggled with losing important experts, industry is urged to not take your eye off your routine food safety programs.
Given all this, we could predict 2026 to continue to be a year of change – which it likely will be; or a year of little to nothing changing – which is also possible. It could be a year of turbulence, which is not unlikely for the food industry; or a year of relative inertia with things just drifting along. A year tends to be more predictable when action follows logic and evolving direction, but in the current environment, that doesn’t generally appear to be the basis of action. Rather, with pretty much anything potentially happening, one thing I can predict with any certainty is the year’s overall unpredictability.
But always remember that TAG is here to forge through it all with you. We’ll keep you informed as the year unfolds and help you keep your foods and consumers safe – whatever 2026 ends up bringing!
