By David Acheson
In a December 2024 article, I took a look back at the “unusual” nature of 2024 in the food industry. Given that description, is it any surprise that I see 2025 as being a year of change? I do wish my crystal ball were a little less cloudy as to exactly what that will look like, but there is so much in the air right now, it’s difficult to determine just what will land where. So, this look forward to 2025 will be very speculative, but I’ll do the best I can with what we have.
One thing that is certain is that the election results of 2024 will have a significant impact on our government in general and on the food industry in particular. The selection of Robert F Kennedy Jr to lead HHS has been contested but appears to be moving forward with a charge to “fix” the food supply and “Make America Healthy Again.” Not knowing quite what that will mean has caused some angst in the food industry, while the heavy media focus on outbreaks and recalls has caused consumers to question the fundamental safety of the US food supply. What we do know is that the leadership of both FDA and USDA – along with the HHS which has authority over CDC – will be changing, so there will be some shakeup across the regulatory sphere of the food industry.
Will that shake-up go as far as action on the oft-discussed creation of a single food agency which has been talked about for decades? My perspective is that it is more likely to happen under the Trump administration than any I’ve seen for a long time, because they’re really looking to shake things up. And what could be more of a shake-up than making a single food safety agency? It’s no secret that I am an advocate of doing things more efficiently – making better use of resources, and balancing the portfolio of meat, poultry, and eggs with everything else based on risk and budget and available funding. It is not currently balanced, and I think it would help us all if it were. But creating a single food safety agency will take a lot of time and energy and may be just a bit too much to take on to drive more immediate changes around food additives and the stated need to take on chemicals in food.
The likelihood of significant regulatory change is furthered by the continuing focus on FDA’s handling of the Abbott recall and USDA’s handling of Boar’s Head, which reflected badly on each and have dominated the news. Additionally, state regulations (such as those banning certain chemicals in food), consumer trends (such as the recent disparaging of “ultra-processed foods”), and media focus (such as the contradicting statistics on recalls) all have an impact, and with RFK proposing to completely overhaul FDA on the food side, you have about as strong a tailwind as you could have for change.
I think the best advice I can give at the beginning of the year as we look to where things may go is: Keep your eyes wide open and watch the trends. Nothing will happen quickly because it simply cannot. The food industry can’t flip on a dime. You can’t suddenly decide on Monday to ban something and do it on Tuesday; it doesn’t work that way, and it never will. And it never should. There needs to be a process to figure it out correctly.
So going into an era of not knowing where things are going, it is that much more critical to stay aware of emerging issues and regulatory winds; quickly assess your exposure and your risk to it; and determine how you can be proactive. If a particular chemical, residue, or preservative is being talked about, ask yourself: Do we use that? To what extent are we using it? What could we replace it with? Some food companies already have those conversations, but it will behoove all to have those more and more, to recognize that changes are coming, to track what’s being talked about, and to understand the potential impact of that change on your brand and your business. So, if there is a need to move away from something, you are optimizing your success at moving away from it and making changes.
Be prepared for change – both in areas discussed here and those that seem to emerge out of thin air, that we just never saw coming. Given the recent high-profile outbreaks along with the cry for “Making America Healthy Again,” some level of change is inevitable. It will likely not move as fast as the politicians would like, but it could be very significant for those manufacturing and processing foods. Given that the stakes are high, TAG will keep a sharp eye on all as it rolls out, and we’ll do our best to interpret the prevailing winds. Keep an eye on this space – and subscribe if you aren’t already, as this is certainly not the last you will hear from me on predictions, preparations, and recommendations.
